A new season starts today and I love it. I'm gonna try playing more dogs this season. I will look for value plays as well as short dogs with a good chance to win.
Thursday:
- 5/7.90 Cubs +158
- 4/3.70 BREWERS / CUBS u9 -108
- 5/5.30 Astros +106
- 4/3.48 Pirates / Cardinals UNDER 8 -115 for Game
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- Cubs +158 ... Hendricks can't really be as bad as last year and the Cubs are opening at home. Byrnes started strong last season and had a great season, but I think the odds are way high at Wrigley. I give the Cubs a 46% chance to win while the odds only say 38.5%. I think maybe the total is adjusted a little too high as well, based on Hendricks' pre-season and last season as well as the wind blowing out to center(10-14mph).
- Pirates / Cardinals UNDER 8 -115 ... Waino has to show his age eventually, right? Brubaker likely improves, while Wainwright regresses off last season's numbers. With both teams solid defensively, I can see a low-scoring affair that can go either way, so I would back the huge dog, but with the number dropping from +185 to +156 I'll just play the under.
- Astros +106 ... Even though I'm high on the Halos this season, not sure they come out the gate hitting all cylinders. Framber is solid and can see him improving, even more, this season. Love a top 4 team as a dog.
Nice