Elite Eight ~ Day 2
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Elite Eight ~ Day 2

Villanova is really resilient.  I believe a large part of the win was Jay Wright's game plan.  Slowed the game way down, even though HOU played defense franticly. Nova shot 28.8% and still won!  That's hard to get my mind around.  But they held HOU to 44 points, 1-20 from deep, and only 0.76 points per possession.  Wow, it was simply picture-perfect execution and even though it cost me...it was an amazing watch. In the other game, Duke scored only 6 points in the last 6:32 to leave the total under the 147½ by a stinking half point.  Maybe it's was a losing day, but I was treated to some amazing entertainment by these gifted lads.  Can't wait to see if the Peacocks can deny UNC the dream matchup with Duke in the Final Four. 🤗

TODAY

🏀 St Peters +8½ -105 and UNDER 137½ -105 .... St Peters isn’t just happy to be here.  They expect to win today.  With an amazing defense and stellar shooting, they've become real contenders.  The Peacocks are 10-0 SU and ATS in their L10.  The ST Pete 5-out spread offense is much better than the sum of the parts.  They attack the rim...frequently, actually #1 in D1 in finishing-at-the-rim frequency (53%).  They get lots of off-screen and cutting plays...that's mostly how they are able to finish at the rim.  They are still dealy in catch-and-shoot too, ranking 7th in catch-and-shoot PPP.  Their best play and 3-time MAAC defensive player of the year; KC Ndefo may have some trouble with Bacot's size but don't expect that to be a given.  Bacot has been amazing and a huge reason the Heels are still dancing, so I would assume limiting his production is high on Coach Halloway's to-do list.  NC will play fast as that's just how they play, likely they will try to pound the rock inside where they will enjoy a size advantage across the line.  Honestly, we expected neither of these teams at this point, but UNC brings a rich and storied past as well as a potential matchup vs Duke on deck. Hell, we could have an ACC reunion at the Final Four in New Orleans with 3 teams possible.  I think the Tar Heels do advance but I will still back the dog at +8½.  I will lean with the under as well, even vs this high-powered North Carolina offense, the Peacocks will have to D-up and slow pace for any chance.

🏀 Miami +5½ -104 and OVER 147 -104 ... Miami features 4 sixth-year seniors, including Kam McGusty.  He's put up 83 points over L4 games.  Their only non-senior starter, sophomore Isaiah Wong, has played 94 games with 74 starts.  This is an unheard-of experience level for a team in the Elite 8.  Thanks largely to this maturity the Canes have a very low turnover rate (6th nationally). Their 5-out offense, with Waardenburg commanding as a "point-center," is extremely tough to prepare for on a quick turnaround.  KU just played a completely different offense in Providence.  While the Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in L6 Tourney games, MIA is 11-2 ATS as a DOG this season and 10-2 ATS on the road this year. McGusty is a true stud; 3-level scorer who hits 70% at the rim, 43% from the mid-range, and 35% from deep.  He's also a rock-solid ball-handler, draws plenty of fouls, and converts 81% of his freebies.  The MIA defense has some issues ranking 114th in adj efficiency, allowing 52.5% eFG% or 283rd, and they're weak rebounding(off & def).  With all the issues you may wonder how they made it this far or what chance they have against this elite Jayhawks team?  They do a lot of things well, mostly on offense and just playing smart error-free ball, the level that comes with loads of experience.  Kansas is truly elite with superstars in McCormack & Agbaji, great offensive execution(6th in adj efficiency), and solid defensive efficiency(23rd).  KU is very well-coached with amazing talent. McCormack's should have his way down low since the Canes have no significant way to deal with him, but he's not really a scorer so the game will depend more on the play/shooting from the perimeter at both ends.  All 5 MIA starters can score the ball and will need to share the load if they are to advance.  I'm not completely sold on a Miami win, but I do see value at +6(even at 5½ 😏). 76-73

🪄MIA 15-5-1 ATS L21 overall

🪄MIA 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons

🪄MIA 15-5 ATS away vs teams w/winning record L2 seasons

🪄MIA 10-1 ATS away vs teams w/winning record after 14 games L2 seasons

🪄Over 10-4 in MIA L14 neutral site games

🪄Over 7-3-1 in KU L11 NCAA Tournament games

🪄Over 11-5-1 in KU L17 neutral site games