UFC 273: Main Card...
Vinc Pichel (14-2) vs Mark Madsen (11-0) ~ Lightweight (155)
Gilbert Burns (20-4) vs Khamzat Chimaev (10-0) ~ Welterweight (170)
- Madsen Decision ... Slight lean with the superior wrestler over the well-rounded, gritty skillset of Pichel. Madsen’s later round conditioning issues could cause real problems for the Dane if he's unable to pin Pichel to the mat. Pichel is Mr Adaptable, with the experience to brush off a dominant Madsen opening and come into the fight late. Tossup / small play but maybe a fun fight.
- Torres ... The Tiny Tornado may have sunk to a four-fight slide between 2018-2019, but it came against the very best strawweights out there. A never-ending gas tank allows Torres to pour out an unmatchable volume on the feet, with a strong wrestling base to boot. Although Dern is a phenomenal grappler, perhaps the best at 115, her wrestling inadequacies often leave her stranded on her feet. Her striking has developed leaps and bounds since her UFC debut, but as seen against Marina Rodriguez, it won’t ever be enough to pick up W’s when the wrestling is amiss.
- Chimaev ITD ... Burns holds power in the hands that can crack anyone, Usman can attest. Whether Burns’ is as capable of countering a freakishly large, sweltering pressure fighter in Chimaev, however, is difficult to gauge. Low kicks are usually a key weapon of Durinho, but Chimaev likely won't leave time for this. I doubt Chimaev looks quite as impervious as his earlier UFC whitewashes, but I do expect Chimaev eventually presses Burns to the fence even if the Swede eats a fair amount of damage in the process. Burns’ worrying preference to pull guard, even against Usman, is a potential red flag that will only benefit the Khamzat's hellacious ground and pound. Crazy odds make this one hard to play and I'm very tempted to take a flyer on Gilbert, but the astute selection has to be Borz.
UFC 273: Co-Main Event
Aljamain Sterling (20-3) vs Petr Yan (16-2) ~ UFC Bantamweight Championship (135)
- Yan KO ... The real question for this rematch is whether Sterling can find any sort of foothold in the fight? Aljo did find success on the ground vs Yan in the opening rounds of their first bout, but it exhausted him and he failed to threaten Yan afterwards. Admittedly, Sterling regularly found a home for bodywork on the feet, but Yan’s durability is freakish and seemed to have little effect. Considering that Yan is an elite adapter, who will enter this rematch with a near-perfect blueprint of Aljo, the Russian has to be considered a heavy, heavy favorite to reclaim his belt. I really wanted to back Sterling but the harder I look, the more I doubt his chances.
UFC 273: Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski (23-1) vs Chan Sung Jung (17-6)
UFC Featherweight Championship (145)
- Volkanovski ... Perhaps it is the dominance of Volkanovski’s championship reign, perhaps it is TKZ’s lukewarm return from service, but the main event title fight hasn’t attracted much attention. What Jung brings that is fresh, is a level of power that Volk hasn't faced. Volkanovski loves to duck on the inside, while TKZ’s uppercuts are a beautiful leveler. The Aussie’s chin is exceptional, but stranger things have happened in the cage. There is a real possibility that TKZ finds himself pinned against the cage and ground down similar to Volk vs Aldo. TKZ can be frozen by feints, as the Korean is often static while he reads his opponent. Alexander’s relentless energy could dominate the positioning in the cage and lead to a safe yet thoroughly underwhelming title defense. Mostly likely a one-sided decision over the ultra-durable Jung.