Nice 4-1 night, but in reality it was the reciprocal of the previous crap night and only got me back where I was...less juice. 🔧 Bruins game cost me and Jaime Jaquez was a big part of it. Dude sucked it up and gave 38 minutes with an ailing ankle and it showed, especially in 2H after chasing Caleb Love around for a half. Jaquez ended up 5-18 shooting, 0-3 from three & 0-2 FT's. Love went off for his biggest game of the season. To boot, the refs allowed some rough banging in the paint and Bacot/UNC dominated the boards. Just a few more buckets and the Bruins and the over(my lean) would have most likely cashed if they weren't forced to foul late. Nonetheless it was a good night...onto the Elite️ 8️ 👌
TODAY
🏀 Duke -4 -105 and OVER 147½ -105 ... Arky has covered 5 straight as dogs. Duke is playing like a team on a mission; witness the offensive masterpiece down the stretch vs Texas Tech's #1 ranked defense. If they can do it to the Red Raiders, then the #2 ranked Duke offense should be able to rinse/repeat tonight vs the Razorbacks. Duke has three advantages in its matchup against Arkansas: (1) size; (2) ability to score; and (3) low offensive turnover rate. Arkansas would need to hit over 40% from 3-point land to remain in range of defeating a clearly superior Duke team. But if Duke’s guards play like they did against Texas Tech, this game could reach the double-digits. Don’t forget that this Duke team defeated Gonzaga, as well, earlier in the season. If Duke plays to its observed regular-season potential, they should win and cover. That said, I doubt it gets to DD or at least finishes there, but I do believe the Blue Devils control most of the game and move on to Coach K's destiny in a final game vs UNC in the Final Four. 77-70
🏀 HOUSTON -2½ -104 and UNDER 128 -105 ... I like Nova...a lot, but Houston has just dispatched 2 teams I would consider better than the Wildcats and in DOMINATE fashion. The Cougars may be seeded 5th, but KenPom is onto them, having them ranked 2nd overall with #8 offense and #10 defense. So far in the Tourney the Cats have not faced any defense near as strong...or any team as strong for that matter...they beat 2 probably overrated B10 teams and Delaware, for maybe the easiest road to the Elite 8. Their shooting has been erratic at times although they can heat up. If the game is close in the end, Nova has the advantage of being the best FT shooting team in history, but in reality, I don't think it's close. I could see an 8-10 point HOU win unless VIL lights it up from deep. I do think the HOU defense combined with both teams' slow pace will keep the game under as well...but 128 seem pretty damn low.🍆 67-60
- NOVA 21-15 ATS overall this season
- NOVA 5-1 ATS when total is 120 to 130 this season (6-1 over L3 seasons)
- NOVA 7-10 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season
- HOUSTON 25-12 ATS overall this season
- HOUSTON 13-4 ATS when total is 120 to 130 over L3 seasons (4-2 this year)
- HOUSTON 23-12 ATS as FAV this season
- HOUSTON 9-1 ATS on a neutral court this season
- HOUSTON 12-4 ATS in non-conference games this season
- HOUSTON 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season
- HOUSTON 19-8 ATS vs teams with a winning record this season
- HOUSTON 13-4 ATS vs teams with a winning record in L17
🦖
Bonus: THE BASKETBALL CLASSIC - QUARTERFINALS
🏀 Portland +4 -105 ... Easily my strongest play of the day.
The Pilots play in the much tougher WCC and are 20-11 ATS this season. Southern Utah plays in the Big Sky and is 13-19 ATS. The Thunderbirds will be at home and their offense seems much better, just remember they play very liberal defense in the Big Sky and I'm sure the Pilots will play much tighter. Five guys in their main 7-man rotation are 6'8" or bigger while SUU has only one guy over 6'7" and he comes off the bench, but does avg 22 min per game. I believe the Pilots should be pick at worse and catching 4 seems like a gift. 76-75
- PORT 12-5 ATS as DOG this season
- PORT 8-2 ATS in L10 Saturday games
- PORT 7-1 ATS in non-conference roadies
- PORT 13-4 ATS in L17 roadies (10-3 this year)
- SUU 6-2 ATS in L8 as FAV
- SUU 3-14 ATS after scoring 80+ points this season